Rent vs buy in Surprise, AZ

In Surprise, Arizona, the typical rent is $1,942 /mo and the typical home costs $416,014.

Buy

Over 7 years, buying wins by $18k

Using Surprise's typical rent and home value, plus 20% down and today's mortgage rate. The break-even point falls in year 6.

Clearly labeled opinion with the math shown. The figures are estimates, not quotes. Change any number, and the stamp changes with it.

Owning is ahead by: $18k
Break-even point: Year 6
The real cost of owning: $3,420 each month

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Surprise's typical rent and home value provide the basis for the stamp. It can flip based on your rent, price and years.

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Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Surprise?

Counting the money you get back when you sell, buying comes out cheaper by $18,075 over 7 years. In year 6, owning's net cost falls below renting's and stays lower.

Renting Owning Net cost to date, by year.

Average rent compared with mortgage payment in Surprise

Rent and mortgage payments don't tell the full story. Here are all monthly costs for year 1 using Surprise's typical price.

Each month, year 1	Amount	What it is
Rent	$1,942	All of it, every month
Mortgage payment	$2,268	$1,999 of it is interest in year 1
Property tax	$146	0.42% of the value a year
Insurance	$79	Census median for the city
Upkeep	$347	1% of the value a year
Owning, cash out	$2,839	$269 of it builds equity
Lost return on the down payment	$676	At 8.3% a year, what the cash would earn
Buying costs, spread out	$173	3.5% of the price over 7 years
True cost of owning	$3,420	Cash out, minus the equity share, plus the two entries listed above.

The figures behind the Surprise verdict

Typical home valueZillow ZHVI, September 2026: $416,014
Typical rentZillow ZORI, September 2026: $1,942 /mo
Down payment20% avoids private mortgage insurance, which the engine does not model: 20%
Mortgage rateFreddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (FRED MORTGAGE30US): 7.24%
Home price growthFHFA house price index, Arizona, 1995 to 2025: 5.2% a year
Rent growthCPI rent of primary residence, yearly growth 2006 to 2026: 3.5% a year
Return on savings60% S&P 500 with dividends and 40% 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced yearly, 1928 to 2025: 8.3% a year
Property taxCensus ACS 2020-2024, Surprise: 0.42% of value
Home insuranceCensus ACS 2020-2024, Surprise: $79 /mo
MaintenanceFannie Mae, low end of 1% to 4%: 1% of value a year
Buying costsFreddie Mac, middle of 2% to 5%: 3.5% of price
Selling costsAgent commission plus closing costs: 6% of price

In Surprise, what would change the result?

Each line marks the threshold where the 7-year verdict for Surprise changes, while everything else remains unchanged.

When renting wins

For the calculation, we use 5.2%, Arizona's long-term rate. Prices for homes grow by less than 4.7% each year.
The mortgage rate remains above 8.01%.
A similar home has monthly rent below $1,750 (typical here: $1,942).
Your move happens before year 6.

When buying wins

Home prices grow at a rate faster than 4.7% a year.
You secure a mortgage rate under 8.01%; today's rate is 7.24%.
If you rented that same home, you'd pay more than $1,750 a month.
Your stay lasts 6 years or longer.

How Surprise compares with the other 812 cities

Measure	Surprise	Median city
Typical home value	$416,014	$422,451
Typical rent	$1,942 /mo	$1,837 /mo
Price-to-rent ratio	17.9 (#437 of 813)	18.5
Home prices, last 10 years	6% a year	6.2% a year
Rents, last 5 years	1.5% a year	4% a year
Property tax	0.42%	0.87%
Households that rent	21%	42%

Sources: Zillow ZHVI and ZORI, Census ACS 2020-2024.

More cities in Arizona

Renting leads in Phoenix, AZ, with renting ahead by $14k.
Rent. In Glendale, AZ, renting wins by $17k.
Rent. In Peoria, AZ, renting wins by $17k.

State numbers for renting vs buying in Arizona