Rent vs buy in Phoenix, AZ

In Phoenix, Arizona, the typical rent is $1,571 /mo and the typical home is $404,067.

Rent

Over 7 years, renting comes out ahead by $14k

These figures use Phoenix's typical rent and home value, plus 20% down and the mortgage rate today. The break-even point is year 9.

Clearly labelled opinion with the math shown. Estimates, not quotes. The stamp updates when you change a number.

Renting leads by: $14k
When costs break even: In year 9
Actual cost of ownership: Each month: $3,344

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Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Phoenix?

Over 7 years, renting costs $13,817 less, including the money you get back when you sell. For the first 8 years, renting costs less. Year 9 is when owning catches up.

Rent. The owning side. Net cost by year so far.

In Phoenix, average rent compared with the mortgage payment

Rent and mortgage payments don't cover the full picture. Here are all monthly costs for year 1 at Phoenix's typical price.

Each month, year 1	Amount	What it is
Rent	$1,571	All of it, every month
Mortgage payment	$2,203	$1,942 of it is interest in year 1
Property tax	$148	0.44% of the value a year
Insurance	$92	Census median for the city
Upkeep	$337	1% of the value a year
Owning, cash out	$2,780	$261 of it builds equity
Lost return on the down payment	$657	Yearly earnings on the cash at 8.3%
Buying costs, spread out	$168	3.5% of the price over 7 years
True cost of owning	$3,344	Cash paid out, minus equity, plus both lines above

Phoenix verdict numbers

Zillow ZHVI, September 2026, typical home value: $404,067
Zillow ZORI, September 2026, typical rent: Per month: $1,571
A 20% down payment avoids private mortgage insurance; the engine does not model that cost.: 20%
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (FRED MORTGAGE30US), mortgage rate: 7.24%
Growth in home prices: FHFA house price index, Arizona, 1995 to 2025: Each year: 5.2%
Rent growth CPI primary-residence rent, yearly growth 2006 to 2026: Each year: 3.5%
Savings return S&P 500 including dividends at 60%, 10-year Treasuries at 40%, rebalanced yearly, 1928 to 2025: 8.3% each year
Property tax Census data: ACS 2020-2024, Phoenix: 0.44% of the value
Home insurance Census data: ACS 2020-2024, Phoenix: $92 each month
Maintenance Fannie Mae, low end of the 1% to 4% range: 1% of the value each year
Buying costs Freddie Mac, middle of the 2% to 5% range: 3.5% of the price
Selling costs Agent commission and closing costs: 6% of the price

What would reverse the Phoenix result?

The 7-year verdict in Phoenix flips at the point shown on each line, with everything else left as it is.

When renting wins

Our rate of 5.2%, Arizona's long-run rate, reflects home prices growing slower than 5.6% a year.
The mortgage rate remains above 6.63%.
Monthly rent under $1,720 applies to this kind of home (typical here: $1,571).
Before year 9, you move.

When buying wins

Home prices grow by more than 5.6% each year.
A mortgage rate below 6.63% is what you lock in (today's is 7.24%).
The same home would cost more than $1,720 a month to rent.
You stay at least 9 years.

Phoenix compared with the other 812 cities

Measure	Phoenix	Median city
Typical home value	$404,067	$422,451
Typical rent	$1,571 /mo	$1,837 /mo
Price-to-rent ratio	21.4 (#269 of 813)	18.5
Home prices, last 10 years	6.7% a year	6.2% a year
Rents, last 5 years	1% a year	4% a year
Property tax	0.44%	0.87%
Households that rent	43%	42%

Data come from Zillow ZHVI and ZORI, Census ACS 2020-2024.

More Arizona cities

Rent. Glendale, AZ. Renting comes out ahead by $17k.
Rent. Peoria, AZ. Renting comes out ahead by $17k.
Buy. Surprise, AZ. Buying comes out ahead by $18k.

Arizona rent vs buy: the state's numbers