Is this a good time to buy a house?

Headlines saying the market has turned don't make it a good time to buy; staying past your city's break-even year does.

Fixed mortgage rate, 30-year term: 7.24%
Cities where renting comes out ahead: 580 of 813
Cities where buying comes out ahead: 176
Usual break-even point: year 10

Look up your city in the calculator See every city, ranked

Is this a good time to buy a house? In most large US cities, cost alone won't support buying. Across the 813 cities we check, renting costs less over 7 years in 71% of them when mortgages are near 7.24%. Buying still comes out ahead in 176 of them, and market conditions only account for half the answer. How long you'll stay determines the other half.

Today's mortgage rate and how it changes the numbers

The fixed rate for 30 years averaged 7.24% during the final week of October 2026, according to Freddie Mac. One year earlier, the rate stood at 6.17%. That means loans cost more this year rather than less.

It sounds bad, but the longer view puts it in context. January 2021 marked the low point of 2.65% for Freddie Mac's weekly rate history since 1971. Their highest point was 18.63% in October 1981. The average for the full series is about 7.7%. Today's rate looks high compared with 2021. Compared with the past 55 years, it's close to normal.

Most of your early payments go toward interest, so the rate matters. Your lender charges interest when you borrow money. Interest doesn't build equity, which is the part of the home that you own outright. A higher rate leaves you less of each check and sends more to the bank for a longer stretch.

Is this a good time to buy a house: a house key chained to an iron ball

Do home prices keep climbing?

At a slow pace. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, US home prices climbed 2.4% from August 2025 to August 2026. The change differed widely by region. Mountain states gained 0.5% during the year, compared with 4.4% in East North Central states.

Rent prices also rise. According to the BLS rent index, rents have risen at an annual rate of about 3.5% over the last 20 years. When home prices creep upward and rents keep rising, buying slowly becomes more attractive. This change takes years, though, rather than weeks.

Is it smart to buy a house right now in a big city?

The city you choose matters a great deal. These are the 20 largest cities, with our verdict for someone who puts 20% down and stays 7 years.

City	Verdict	7-year result	Break-even
New York City, NY	Toss-up	toss-up, buying ahead by $5k	year 7
Los Angeles, CA	Rent	renting wins by $111k	year 16
Chicago, IL	Toss-up	toss-up, buying ahead by $3k	year 7
Houston, TX	Toss-up	toss-up, renting ahead by $2k	year 8
Phoenix, AZ	Rent	renting wins by $14k	year 9
Philadelphia, PA	Buy	buying wins by $40k	year 3
San Antonio, TX	Rent	renting wins by $10k	year 10
San Diego, CA	Rent	renting wins by $108k	year 15
Dallas, TX	Rent	renting wins by $20k	year 12
Jacksonville, FL	Buy	buying wins by $27k	year 5
Fort Worth, TX	Rent	renting wins by $17k	year 11
San Jose, CA	Rent	renting wins by $210k	year 21
Austin, TX	Rent	renting wins by $111k	none in 30 years
Charlotte, NC	Rent	renting wins by $30k	year 13
Columbus, OH	Rent	renting wins by $12k	year 11
Indianapolis, IN	Toss-up	toss-up, renting ahead by $2k	year 8
San Francisco, CA	Rent	renting wins by $128k	year 13
Seattle, WA	Rent	renting wins by $128k	year 21
Denver, CO	Rent	renting wins by $37k	year 12
Oklahoma City, OK	Toss-up	toss-up, renting ahead by $3k	year 8

The data come from Zillow Home Value and Observed Rent indexes. Our rent vs buy method sets the verdicts, using 20% down over 7 years.

Buying comes out ahead in cities such as Philadelphia and Baltimore, where homes cost little compared with rent. In San Jose and Seattle, rent stays far below home prices, so renting wins. Among all cities, 57 are toss-ups, with results close enough for your own numbers to decide. The rent vs buy by city table lists every one.

Do I buy a house now or wait?

Waiting is a bet, and that bet has a cost. Every year you wait, you pay rent that's likely to rise. The home you want costs more if prices also keep rising.

There are two cases when waiting can pay off:

Rates drop sharply. A rate drop lets you buy with a lower payment. Buying now and refinancing later is another option, but refinancing means paying closing costs a second time.
You aren't prepared. If you can't pay the down payment, closing costs and keep a cushion, you should wait. This isn't about timing the market. It's about being prepared.

Trying to catch the bottom doesn't work. No one predicts it in advance. Economists, ourselves included, are wrong about it constantly.

When is a good time to buy a house for you?

Your own life matters more than market conditions. Most of these being true makes it a good time:

You'll stay beyond your city's break-even year. During that year, owning finally costs less than renting. Among cities where this point exists, the median is year 10.
You have the cash available. On top of the down payment, closing costs typically equal 2% to 5% of the purchase price, according to the CFPB.
After closing, you'll still have savings left. The CFPB suggests keeping an emergency cushion equal to three to six months of your expenses.
Over the next few years, your job and income look steady.

Renting usually comes out ahead almost everywhere if you're likely to move in 3 years. The costs of buying and selling are too high to earn back that fast.