Rent vs buy in Lincoln, CA
In Lincoln, California, typical rent is $2,897 /mo and a typical home costs $640,369.
It's a toss-up, with a $1,535 difference over 7 years
Using 20% down with today's mortgage rate, the calculation starts from Lincoln's typical rent and home value. The break-even point arrives in year 8.
Clearly labeled opinion with the math shown. Estimates, not quotes. Adjust a number and the stamp shifts.
- Gap
- $2k after 7 years
- Point where costs balance
- Year 8 when owning catches up
- Full cost of owning
- Per month: $5,528 year 1, against $2,897 rent
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Lincoln's typical rent and home value are what the stamp uses. Your rent, price and time period can change the result.
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Would renting or buying cost less in Lincoln?
After 7 years, the two paths are within $1,535 of each other, which means small changes decide which one wins. Renting costs less during the first 7 years. In year 8, owning catches up.
The renting option. The owning option. The net cost so far, by year.
How Lincoln's average rent compares with its mortgage payment
Rent and mortgage payments don't capture the full picture. This list covers all monthly costs during year 1 using Lincoln's typical price.
| Each month, year 1 | Amount | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Rent | $2,897 | All of it, every month |
| Mortgage payment | $3,491 | $3,077 of it is interest in year 1 |
| Property tax | $507 | 0.95% of the value a year |
| Insurance | $102 | Census median for the city |
| Upkeep | $534 | 1% of the value a year |
| Owning, cash out | $4,634 | $414 of it builds equity |
| Lost return on the down payment | $1,041 | At 8.3% a year, this is what the cash would earn. |
| Buying costs, spread out | $267 | 3.5% of the price over 7 years |
| True cost of owning | $5,528 | Subtract the equity portion from cash out, then add the two lines above. |
The Lincoln verdict explained by its numbers
- Usual home value Zillow ZHVI, September 2026
- $640,369
- What rent usually costs Zillow ZORI, September 2026
- $2,897 a month
- With a 20% down payment, you avoid private mortgage insurance, which the engine doesn't model.
- 20%
- Mortgage rate used Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (FRED MORTGAGE30US)
- 7.24%
- Price growthFHFA home price index, California, 1995 to 2025
- Each year: 5.3%
- Rent growth CPI rent of primary residence, annual growth from 2006 to 2026
- Each year: 3.5%
- Savings return60% in S&P 500 with dividends, plus 40% in 10-year Treasuries; rebalanced yearly, from 1928 through 2025
- 8.3% each year
- Property tax Census ACS 2020-2024, Lincoln
- 0.95% of the value
- Home insurance Census ACS 2020-2024, Lincoln
- $102 /mo
- MaintenanceSource: Fannie Mae, low end of 1% to 4%
- Each year: 1% of value
- Buying costs Freddie Mac, 2% to 5% midpoint
- 3.5% of the purchase price
- Selling costsAgent commission and closing costs
- 6% of the price
What would reverse the verdict in Lincoln?
Every line marks the point at which the 7-year verdict for Lincoln changes, while all other factors remain the same.
Renting is better when
- Home prices rise more slowly than 5.3% a year (our figure is California's long-run rate, 5.3%).
- The mortgage rate remains above 7.20%.
- A similar home rents for under $2,910 a month, with $2,897 typical here.
- Your move happens before year 8.
Buying is better when
- Home prices rise by more than 5.3% a year.
- You lock in a mortgage rate under 7.20% (today's is 7.24%).
- Rent for the same home would cost more than $2,910 a month.
- You remain for 8 years or more.
Lincoln compared with the other 812 cities
| Measure | Lincoln | Median city |
|---|---|---|
| Typical home value | $640,369 | $422,451 |
| Typical rent | $2,897 /mo | $1,837 /mo |
| Price-to-rent ratio | 18.4 (#411 of 813) | 18.5 |
| Home prices, last 10 years | 4.4% a year | 6.2% a year |
| Rents, last 5 years | 2.9% a year | 4% a year |
| Property tax | 0.95% | 0.87% |
| Households that rent | 16% | 42% |
Data sources are Zillow ZHVI and ZORI, Census ACS 2020-2024.
A look at other California cities
- Renting. Los Angeles, CA. Advantage: $111k for renting.
- Rent. San Diego, CA. Renting is better by $108k.
- Rent. San Jose, CA. Renting is better by $210k.
- Rent. San Francisco, CA. Renting is better by $128k.
- Buy. Fresno, CA. Buying is better by $22k.
- A toss-up in Sacramento, CA. Renting leads by $3k.
- Renting. Long Beach, CA. Advantage: $111k for renting.
- Rent. Oakland, CA. Renting is better by $44k.
- Buy. Bakersfield, CA. Buying is better by $11k.
- Renting wins by $115k in Anaheim, CA.
- Buying wins by $16k in Stockton, CA.
- Renting wins by $27k in Riverside, CA.