Rent vs buy in Modesto, CA
In Modesto, California, the typical rent is $2,022 /mo and the typical home costs $439,988.
Buying comes out ahead by $11k over 7 years
Today's mortgage rate applies alongside 20% down and Modesto's typical rent and home value. Break-even happens in year 7.
A clearly labeled opinion with the math shown. These are estimates, not quotes. The stamp updates when you change a number.
- Ownership leads by
- $11k after 7 years
- Break-even point
- In year 7 when owning catches up
- Full cost of owning
- $3,706 /mo year 1, against $2,022 rent
Change my numbers
That stamp starts from Modesto's figures for typical rent and home value. Your rent, price and years may flip the result.
Are your numbers different from the city's?
Enter your own rent, price and down payment. It changes with them.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Modesto?
Over 7 years, buying costs $11,253 less when you include the money returned after you sell. In year 7, owning's net cost falls below renting's and remains lower.
Renting Owning Net cost by year so far.
Average rent compared with mortgage payment in Modesto
Rent and mortgage aren't the whole story. Here are all monthly costs for year 1, based on Modesto's typical price.
| Each month, year 1 | Amount | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Rent | $2,022 | All of it, every month |
| Mortgage payment | $2,399 | $2,114 of it is interest in year 1 |
| Property tax | $235 | 0.64% of the value a year |
| Insurance | $92 | Census median for the city |
| Upkeep | $367 | 1% of the value a year |
| Owning, cash out | $3,092 | $284 of it builds equity |
| Lost return on the down payment | $715 | The return on the cash at 8.3% a year |
| Buying costs, spread out | $183 | 3.5% of the price over 7 years |
| True cost of owning | $3,706 | Cash paid out, minus the equity portion, plus the two amounts above |
Numbers behind Modesto's result
- Typical home value: Zillow ZHVI, September 2026
- $439,988
- Typical rent: Zillow ZORI, September 2026
- $2,022 /mo
- Down payment: 20% means you avoid private mortgage insurance. The engine doesn't model that.
- 20%
- Mortgage rate from Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (FRED MORTGAGE30US)
- 7.24%
- This FHFA house price index covers California, 1995 through 2025 for home price growth
- 5.3% each year
- Rent growthyearly CPI growth for rent of primary residence, 2006 to 2026
- 3.5% each year
- Savings return: 40% 10-year Treasuries and 60% S&P 500 with dividends, rebalanced yearly, 1928 to 2025
- Annual rate: 8.3%
- Tax on property: Census ACS 2020-2024, Modesto
- Property tax equals 0.64% of value.
- Insurance for the homeCensus ACS 2020-2024, Modesto
- Monthly cost: $92
- Maintenanceat the low end of 1% to 4%, according to Fannie Mae
- 1% of the value each year
- Buying coststhe middle of 2% to 5%, from Freddie Mac
- That equals 3.5% of price.
- Sale expensesAgent commission and closing costs
- That equals 6% of price.
What would make it flip in Modesto?
Every line marks where the 7-year result for Modesto switches, while all other inputs stay the same.
Renting comes out ahead when
- Home prices grow more slowly than 5.0% a year. We use California's long-run rate of 5.3%.
- The mortgage rate remains above 7.69%.
- Rent on a home like this comes to under $1,900 each month (typical here: $2,022).
- Your move happens before year 7.
Buying comes out ahead when
- Home prices rise faster than 5.0% a year.
- You secure a mortgage rate under 7.69% (today's is 7.24%).
- The same home would cost more than $1,900 a month to rent.
- You remain there for 7 years or more.
How Modesto compares with the other 812 cities
| Measure | Modesto | Median city |
|---|---|---|
| Typical home value | $439,988 | $422,451 |
| Typical rent | $2,022 /mo | $1,837 /mo |
| Price-to-rent ratio | 18.1 (#426 of 813) | 18.5 |
| Home prices, last 10 years | 6.2% a year | 6.2% a year |
| Rents, last 5 years | 3.6% a year | 4% a year |
| Property tax | 0.64% | 0.87% |
| Households that rent | 41% | 42% |
Data comes from Zillow ZHVI and ZORI, Census ACS 2020-2024.
More California cities
- Rent. Los Angeles, CA. Renting comes out ahead by $111k.
- Rent. San Diego, CA. Renting comes out ahead by $108k.
- Rent. San Jose, CA. Renting comes out ahead by $210k.
- Rent. San Francisco, CA. Renting comes out ahead by $128k.
- Buy. Fresno, CA. The edge goes to buying by $22k.
- Toss-up. Sacramento, CA. Renting leads by $3k.
- Rent. Long Beach, CA. Renting has the advantage by $111k.
- Oakland, CA favors renting by $44k.
- Bakersfield, CA favors buying by $11k.
- Rent. Anaheim, CA. Renting has the advantage by $115k.
- Buy. Stockton, CA. Buying comes out ahead by $16k.
- Rent. In Riverside, CA, renting comes out ahead by $27k.