Rent vs buy in Mesa, AZ
In Mesa, Arizona, the typical rent is $1,532 /mo and the typical home is $428,871.
Over 7 years, renting is ahead by $24k.
Using Mesa's typical rent and home value, 20% down and today's mortgage rate. The break-even point lands in year 11.
A clearly marked opinion, with the math shown. These figures are estimates, not quotes. Adjust any number and the stamp updates.
- Renting leads by
- $24k after 7 years
- Break-even point
- Year 11 when owning catches up
- What owning really costs
- $3,518 each month year 1, against $1,532 rent
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Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Mesa?
Across 7 years, renting costs $24,405 less, counting the money you get back when you sell. Renting costs less during the first 10 years. In year 11, owning catches up.
Renting. Owning. Net cost to date, shown by year.
Mesa: average rent compared with mortgage payments
Rent and the mortgage don't tell the whole story. Here are all monthly costs for year 1, using Mesa's typical price.
| Each month, year 1 | Amount | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Rent | $1,532 | All of it, every month |
| Mortgage payment | $2,338 | $2,061 of it is interest in year 1 |
| Property tax | $139 | 0.39% of the value a year |
| Insurance | $84 | Census median for the city |
| Upkeep | $357 | 1% of the value a year |
| Owning, cash out | $2,919 | $277 of it builds equity |
| Lost return on the down payment | $697 | The return on that cash at 8.3% a year |
| Buying costs, spread out | $179 | 3.5% of the price over 7 years |
| True cost of owning | $3,518 | Cash out, subtract the equity part, then add the two lines above |
Inside the numbers for the Mesa verdict
- Typical home value Zillow, ZHVI, September 2026
- $428,871
- Typical rent Zillow, ZORI, September 2026
- $1,532 each month
- With a 20% down payment, you avoid private mortgage insurance; the engine does not model it.
- 20%
- Mortgage rate Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (FRED MORTGAGE30US)
- 7.24%
- Growth in home prices FHFA index for home prices, Arizona, 1995 to 2025
- 5.2% yearly
- Rent growthCPI yearly growth of rent for primary residence, 2006 to 2026
- 3.5% yearly
- Return on savings60% S&P 500 including dividends, plus 40% 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced each year, 1928 to 2025
- 8.3% each year
- Property tax Census ACS 2020-2024, Mesa
- 0.39% of the value
- Home insurance Census ACS 2020-2024, Mesa
- $84 per month
- MaintenanceFannie Mae, 1% to 4%, the low end
- Each year, 1% of value
- Buying costs Freddie Mac, midpoint of 2% to 5%
- 3.5% of the price
- Costs of sellingAgent commission and closing costs
- 6% of the price
What would flip the Mesa result?
Each line marks the point where Mesa's 7-year verdict changes, while everything else stays as it is.
Renting comes out ahead when
- Home prices grow more slowly than 5.9% a year (our figure is 5.2%, Arizona's rate over the long run).
- The mortgage rate remains above 6.23%.
- Renting a similar home runs under $1,790 a month; the typical figure here is $1,532.
- Your move comes before year 11.
Buying comes out ahead when
- Home prices grow by more than 5.9% each year.
- You lock a rate under 6.23% for the mortgage (the current rate is 7.24%).
- The same home would cost more than $1,790 a month to rent.
- You remain for 11 years or more.
How Mesa compares with the other 812 cities
| Measure | Mesa | Median city |
|---|---|---|
| Typical home value | $428,871 | $422,451 |
| Typical rent | $1,532 /mo | $1,837 /mo |
| Price-to-rent ratio | 23.3 (#200 of 813) | 18.5 |
| Home prices, last 10 years | 6.7% a year | 6.2% a year |
| Rents, last 5 years | 0.8% a year | 4% a year |
| Property tax | 0.39% | 0.87% |
| Households that rent | 36% | 42% |
Data from: Zillow ZHVI and ZORI, Census ACS 2020-2024.
More Arizona cities
- Rent. Phoenix AZ. Renting comes out ahead by $14k.
- Toss-up. Tucson AZ. It's a toss-up, with buying ahead by $672.
- Rent wins. Gilbert AZ. The gap is $26k for renting.
- Rent. Chandler AZ. Renting comes out ahead by $25k.
- Rent. Glendale AZ. Renting comes out ahead by $17k.
- Rent. Scottsdale AZ. Renting comes out ahead by $129k.
- Rent. Peoria AZ. Renting comes out ahead by $17k.
- Rent. Tempe AZ. Renting comes out ahead by $31k.
- Buy. Surprise AZ. Buying comes out ahead by $18k.
- Rent. In Goodyear, AZ, renting wins by $28k.
- Buy. Buying wins by $29k in Buckeye, AZ.
- Buy. Buying wins by $11k in Yuma, AZ.